Two sides separated by just two points and one place in the Primeira Liga standings face off as Estoril Praia and Portimonense go head to head at the Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota on Saturday.
Unbeaten in each of the last five meetings between the sides since 2011, the hosts will head into the game seeking to extend their dominance in the history of this fixture and snap their three-game winless run.
Match preview
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Estoril Praia failed to find their feet in the Primeira Liga last weekend when they played out an uneventful goalless draw with Gil Vicente at the Estadio Cidade de Barcelos.
Despite seeing over 60% of the ball possession, the Gilistas were guilty of a wasteful display and lack of precision at the attacking end of the pitch, where they failed to convert any of their several clear-cut chances.
Bruno Pinheiro's men have now failed to win any of their most recent three games, claiming one draw and losing two, while managing just one win in their last 12 games across all competitions.
While this poor run has seen their Taca de Portugal campaign come to an end, it has also seen them drop to eighth place in the Primeira Liga standings, two points and one place above Saturday's visitors.
However, Estoril Praia will feel confident of coming away with the desired results and ending this dry spell as they face an opposing side who they are unbeaten against since 2011, claiming four wins and one draw from their five meetings in that time.
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Portimonense, meanwhile, saw their run of four consecutive draws come to an end last time out courtesy of a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Benfica at the Estadio Municipal de Portimao.
After falling behind to Wellington Junior's 25th-minute opener, Benfica upped the ante as Alejandro Grimaldo restored parity on the stroke of half time before Goncalo Ramos scored in the second half to complete the comeback.
Portimonense have now failed to taste victory in any of their last 11 games across all competitions, losing five games and claiming three draws since beating Famalicao on penalties in their Taca de Portugal tie back in December.
This poor run has been in no small part owing to their struggles on home turf, where Paulo Sergio's side boast the division's poorest record with just two wins and 10 points from 13 games so far.
Portimonense follows Saturday's game with a home clash with Braga on March 20, while Estoril Praia face the stern test of travelling to the Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to face 2018-19 champions Benfica.
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Team News
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Pinheiro remains unable to call up the services of newly-signed Ruben Providence, who is on loan from Roma, as the 20-year-old forward is currently recuperating from an ankle problem.
Fellow forward Rui Fonte is also on the Estoril Praia injury list after the 31-year-old came off injured in the game against Maritimo on February 5.
Brazilian defender Lucas Africo continues his long journey to full fitness after suffering a severe knee problem which has kept him out of action since last November.
Portimonense, on the other hand, will take to the pitch without the services of Fahd Moufi after the Moroccan defender picked up a late red card in the game against Benfica last weekend.
On the injury front, fellow countryman Achraf Lazaar is out of contention for the Alvinegros after the full-back sustained a severe Fibula injury back in September.
Portuguese youngster Ricardo Matos is set to sit out his third straight game after the 21-year-old forward came off injured against Santa Clara on February 21.
Estoril Praia possible starting lineup:
Samuel; Possignolo, Pedrao, Rocha, Gomes; Fernandes, Rocha, Ewerton; Nakajima, Angulo, Oliveira
Portimonense possible starting lineup:
Figueira; Patrick, Ferraresi, Vital, Joaozinho; Loreintz, Gamboa, Franco; Baro, Xavier, Laurenco
We say: Estoril Praia 1-1 Portimonense
On an 11-match winless run, Portimonense will come into this one desperate for a much-needed victory as they look to get their season back on track. While previous results show Estoril Praia are favourites heading into the game, we predict the Canarinhos will hold out for a share of the spoils against an opposing side who have struggled for form in home turf this season.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 37.58%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 34.64% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.99%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (10.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
