Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 38.18% and a draw had a probability of 22.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.55%) and 0-2 (4.82%). The likeliest Heracles win was 2-1 (8.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.