England's road to World Cup 2026 final: Best and worst-case scenarios for Thomas Tuchel's men

The playoffs have drawn to a close, hearts have been broken, and all 48 teams competing at the World Cup 2026 tournament have now been rubber-stamped.

European nations make up a third of the total, with 16 UEFA countries vying for international stardom across the North American landscape, and England were the first from their continent to make the Mundial grade.

Disappointing friendly results against Uruguay and Japan have led to a familiar sense of World Cup pessimism, but by the time Thomas Tuchel's men head across the Atlantic, all of his big hitters should be raring to go for the best sporting event on earth.

Here, Sports Mole takes a deeper dive into England's path to World Cup glory, including their road to the final and the best and worst-case scenarios.

England World Cup 2026 road to the final

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In a little over two months time, the Three Lions will renew hostilities with 2018 semi-final foes Croatia, as they take the first step towards conquering the globe in the senior men's game for the first time in six decades.

The Luka Modric-inspired Chequered Ones will prove to be no pushovers - as they have shown at multiple major tournaments over the past decade - but a full-strength England side should still be seen as favourites to get the job done.

The same will be true when Tuchel's men take on Ghana in their second Group L game on June 23, and in their finale vs. Panama, whom they memorably bested 6-1 in 2018 for their biggest World Cup main-draw victory to date.

A first-placed finish in Group L would earn England a date with a third-placed finisher from any of Groups E, H, I, J or K in the first knockout round, before a quarter-final with either the winner of Group A or another third-placed team from Groups C, E, F, H or I.

England's quarter-final opponents would then be any of the Group C winner, Group F runner-up, Group E runner-up or Group I runner-up, but they are on a colossal collision course for reigning champions Argentina in the semi-finals.

England World Cup 2026 best-case scenario

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Finishing first will not guarantee a favourable draw for England, but if they were to earn a second-placed ranking, their last-16 opponent would almost certainly be Euro 2024 final conquerors Spain.

However, by topping Group L, England's last-32 opponents - one of five potential third-placed finishers - could be any of Curacao, Cape Verde, Iraq, Jordan or Uzbekistan in the absolute best-case scenario.

Curacao, Cape Verde and Iraq could also be on track to meet England in the last 16, depending on how the third-placed rankings look by the end of the group stage, while Haiti and Tunisia could also be in the conversation.

On the other half of England's bracket, Brazil will realistically win Group C, Japan should finish second in Group F, Ivory Coast are likely to win silver in Group E and Norway in Group I.

Out of those four, Ivory Coast would be the most favourable quarter-final opponent for England, who would likely then take on either Portugal or Argentina for a place in the showpiece event.

Avoiding the other side of the knockout draw means that England should not meet any of the Netherlands, France or Germany before the final, and if you ask Three Lions supporters who they would want to face in the showpiece out of the trio, you would be hard-pressed to find anyone not saying the former.

England World Cup 2026 worst-case scenario

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The team finishing second in Group L will take on the runner-up from Group K, which if England's luck is not in will be Portugal, who may not have things all their own way against the likes of Colombia and DR Congo.

If Tuchel's men could pass that Cristiano Ronaldo-sized test, Spain would almost certainly be waiting in the last 16, while Belgium have been handed a kind path to the quarter-finals and would be aiming to replicate their 2018 third-placed triumph.

On that side of the draw, any of France, Germany and the Netherlands could battle England for a coveted place in the final; however, the former two are on course for a mammoth last-16 tie as expected Group I and Group E winners.

Then, if the 1966 winners have miraculously managed to battle past all of Portugal, Spain, Belgium and one of the aforementioned three heavyweights, it would only be Brazil or Argentina standing in their way of stardom.