Nations League permutations: What do England need to qualify for quarter-finals?

Eight teams will secure their spot in the quarter-finals of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League, with the group stage of the competition set to conclude this month.

Two sides have already booked their spot in the final eight - Spain and Portugal - and they will soon be joined by six more, with the quarter-finals set to take place in March 2026.

England are currently second in Group A3 behind Spain, with the Three Lions on the brink of securing their position in the final eight of the tournament.

The top two in each of the four groups will qualify for the quarter-finals.

Here, Sports Mole runs through the various permutations for the four groups.

Group A1

France currently sit at the top of Group A1, with the Blues picking up 10 points from their four matches courtesy of a record of three wins and one draw.

Italy, meanwhile, are second on seven points, with their record in this group standing at two wins, one draw and one defeat.

Belgium are third in the section on six points courtesy of a record of two wins and two defeats, while Turkey are bottom, losing all four of their games thus far.

France host Italy on November 12, and a victory would see them qualify automatically ahead of their final game against Turkey. However, a draw with Italy would leave them on 11 points, with a win then required against Turkey to make sure of qualification.

A loss to Italy would mean that France need to beat Turkey to make sure of a spot in the final eight; two defeats, though, could see Zinedine Zidane's side finish third.

Italy would qualify if they manage to beat both France and Belgium, while beating France and then drawing with Belgium would also put them in a strong position.

A draw with France and then overcoming Belgium could also potentially be enough, but if Italy lose to France, they would need to beat Belgium and hope for favourable results elsewhere.

Italy cannot afford to lose both matches if they are to finish in the top two.

Belgium, meanwhile, would qualify if they beat both Turkey and Italy; a win over Turkey and a draw with Italy could also be enough depending on results elsewhere.

Should Belgium draw with Turkey, they would still be alive but would need other results to go their way, but a loss in either match makes it incredibly difficult for them to finish in the top two.

Turkey, meanwhile, are bottom of the section and cannot reach the top two.

Group A2

Group A2 is incredibly close, with Netherlands at the top of the section on eight points, level with second-placed Greece heading into the final two matches.

Germany, meanwhile, are third in the section on five points, with Serbia fourth on zero points.

A win for Netherlands against Greece on November 13 would see them reach 11 points and leave them in a very strong position to secure a spot in the quarter-finals.

A draw with Greece then a positive result against Germany could also secure qualification for the quarter-finals, but a defeat to Greece would leave them needing a positive result against Germany and also results elsewhere to go in their favour.

Wins for Netherlands against both Greece and Germany would make sure of a position in the final eight, so that will be the goal for Xavi's side.

Greece, meanwhile, would be on 11 points with a win over Netherlands, which would leave them in a very strong position in the group ahead of the final round of matches.

A draw with Netherlands would leave them on nine points ahead of their final game with Serbia, where a win would book a spot in the final eight.

However, a loss to Netherlands would leave Greece needing to beat Serbia and then hope that Germany cannot overtake them; wins over both Netherlands and Serbia would see Greece secure a position in the quarter-finals of the tournament.

As for Germany, the national team must beat Serbia to keep their qualification hopes alive, but they would also then need to secure a positive result against Netherlands.

Anything less than four points from their final two matches makes qualification incredibly unlikely, but wins in both would take them onto 11 points, which could be enough to make the top two.

Serbia, though, are bottom of the section on zero points and cannot qualify.

Group A3

Spain are top of Group A3, winning each of their four matches to collect 12 points, while England are second in the section, gathering nine points from their four games.

Croatia are third on three points, while Czech Republic are at the bottom on zero points.

Spain are already through to the quarter-finals of the tournament, and a win over Czech Republic on November 12 would secure first spot in the section.

England, meanwhile, are almost certainly in the quarter-finals; Croatia need to beat them 8-0 on November 12 to stand a chance of jumping above them in the section on the head-to-head record.

Mathematically, at this stage, England need a point to qualify, but sitting six points ahead of third-placed Croatia, it is incredibly difficult to imagine them not being present in the final eight.

Croatia lost 7-0 to England on October 3 and need to win 8-0 in their next match to have a realistic chance of progressing, with a victory over Czech Republic also required, in addition to a favour from Spain against England in the final fixture.

Czech Republic, though, are bottom of the section on six points and cannot qualify.

Group A4

Portugal are already through to the knockout round of the tournament, picking up 12 points from their four matches, while Denmark are second, claiming six points from four matches.

Wales sit third in Group A4 on three points, while Norway are fourth on three points, so it is all to play for in the final two matchdays of the tournament.

Portugal can, in theory, still finish second in the section behind Denmark, but avoiding defeat against the Danes would secure first spot in the group.

Denmark need four points from their final two matches in the group against Portugal and Norway to be sure of a spot in the quarter-finals, but three points may also be enough depending on potential head-to-head tie-breakers.

Wales' route into the final eight is difficult given that they have lost both games against Denmark, who therefore have the advantage in any head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Dragons must beat both Norway and Portugal to stand a chance of finishing in the top two, but they are also relying on results elsewhere.

Norway also need to beat both Wales and Denmark, which would give them nine points, while a victory over Denmark would be important, as they would lead the head-to-head tie-breaker.

Two wins from their final two games would put them in a position to qualify, and they have a clearer route than Wales through that avenue despite currently sitting fourth.