Still searching for their first Serie A success of 2022, Empoli welcome mid-table rivals Hellas Verona to Stadio Carlo Castellani on Sunday.
After losses for both clubs last week, they convene in Tuscany with the home side having both drawn and lost six of their last 12 league outings.
Match preview
© Reuters
Following last Saturday's excursion to San Siro, the long wait for a first victory of the year goes on for Empoli, who were beaten by Milan.
Pierre Kalulu's unexpectedly sweet strike from outside the area consigned the Azzurri to another defeat, and since mid-December no side has earned fewer points in Serie A. Indeed, they last endured a longer winless streak in the top flight during the autumn of 2003.
Still sitting comfortably in mid-table despite their decline, Aurelio Andreazzoli's side - who made an excellent start to the season - somehow remain 10 points above the relegation zone with nine games remaining.
The Serie B champions are, therefore, unlikely to make a direct return to the second tier just a year after promotion, but they will nonetheless be desperate to halt their barren run on home soil this weekend.
After a 0-0 draw against Genoa and subsequent 1-0 defeat to Milan, now Empoli seek to avoid a third goalless game in succession and claim maximum points against a side they have never before lost to at home in four Serie A encounters; keeping a clean sheet on each occasion.
© Reuters
After winning 2-1 in November's reverse fixture due to a late Adrien Tameze winner, with victory on Sunday, Hellas Verona could complete a league double over Empoli for the first time ever.
Though they lost 4-3 in the clubs' most recent meeting - a Coppa Italia second round tie back in December - the Scaligeri are well-placed to repeat their Serie A victory at Stadio Bentegodi, due to some impressive form this year.
Before last week's defeat to title-chasing Napoli, Igor Tudor's men had gone four games unbeaten since the start of February, while embellishing their reputation as one of Calcio's most entertaining sides.
Despite failure last time out, the ninth-placed Gialloblu have picked up 26 points from 15 home matches in the current campaign, while finding the net at a rate of over two goals per game. However, it has been a somewhat different story on the road.
With just three wins away from their headquarters to date, Verona can be said to travel relatively poorly; having conceded at least one goal in each of their last 18 away games.
Their dark-horse challenge for a European spot has also foundered due to a certain weakness when taking the lead; Hellas have dropped more points from winning positions than any other Serie A side this season (22). Indeed, they have failed to win nine of 20 league games in which they went in front this term.
- D
- D
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
As he prepares for his latest attempt to stop Empoli's decline, Aurelio Andreazzoli will have most of his squad available to choose from on Sunday - injured pair Nicolas Haas and Riccardo Marchizza being the only exceptions.
Therefore, the hosts should line up with top scorer Andrea Pinamonti leading the line, supported by any two from Liam Henderson, Federico Di Francesco and Nedim Bajrami.
If selected, the latter will make his 100th appearance for Empoli in all competitions. The Albania international is also the youngest midfielder to have been directly involved in at least nine Serie A goals this season - six of his own and three assists.
Verona, meanwhile, will be forced to shuffle their pack far more, as Igor Tudor must deal with a number of absences. Wing-back Fabio Depaoli is set to miss out through injury, joining Pawel Dawidowicz, Kevin Lasagna, Ivor Pandur, Darko Lazovic and Miguel Veloso on the sidelines.
In addition, Ivan Ilic, Federico Ceccherini and captain Marco Faraoni are all suspended - with the latter pair being sent off late on against Napoli - so Bosko Sutalo, Martin Hongla and Daniel Bessa are on standby to be drafted into the visitors' favoured 3-4-2-1 formation.
Empoli possible starting lineup:
Vicario; Stojanovic, Romagnoli, Luperto, Parisi; Zurkowski, Asllani, Bandinelli; Henderson, Bajrami; Pinamonti
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Coppola, Gunter, Sutalo; Cancelleri, Hongla, Tameze, Casale; Barak, Caprari; Simeone
We say: Empoli 2-1 Hellas Verona
Empoli have conceded 11 times in the opening 15 minutes of play in Serie A this season - the joint-most of any team (level with rock-bottom Salernitana) - while no side has scored more in this period than Verona's 11.
Therefore, the opening stages could prove crucial to the overall outcome, and if the hosts survive unscathed, their winless run can come to an end against a depleted visiting side.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 40.41%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.38%) and 0-2 (5.86%). The likeliest Empoli win was 2-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
