Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarpsborg 08 win with a probability of 64.45%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Jerv had a probability of 16.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarpsborg 08 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.02%) and 1-0 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.52%), while for a Jerv win it was 1-2 (4.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sarpsborg 08 would win this match.