Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Molde win with a probability of 73.58%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Sarpsborg 08 had a probability of 11.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Molde win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 3-0 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.74%), while for a Sarpsborg 08 win it was 1-2 (3.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Molde would win this match.