AFCON 2025 Group B permutations: Who needs what to reach the last 16?

The Africa Cup of Nations group stage enters its final round of fixtures on Monday, with Group B set to be the first to officially conclude as all four teams kick off simultaneously at 4pm GMT.

With Egypt already assured of top spot, only one automatic qualification place remains available, leaving the other three sides still in contention.

South Africa, Zimbabwe and Angola are all battling for second place, although any side finishing third could still progress via the best third-placed route.

Scenarios like this sometimes lead to teams finishing level on points, making it necessary to outline the competition’s ranking criteria should a tie arise.

Teams are first separated by points in head-to-head matches among the tied sides, followed by goal difference and goals scored in those same fixtures, with further tiebreakers applied if required.

Here, Sports Mole breaks down what each team needs to do to qualify for the last 16 of the 2025 AFCON from Group B.

EGYPT (SIX POINTS)

Egypt are already assured of Group B honours after winning their opening two matches, edging past Zimbabwe late on before following up with another narrow victory over South Africa, with Mohamed Salah netting both winners.

The Pharaohs sit three points clear at the summit and cannot be overtaken due to their superior head-to-head record against South Africa, rendering the outcome of their final group game against Angola effectively inconsequential.

SOUTH AFRICA (THREE POINTS)

South Africa can no longer challenge for first place after losing the head-to-head battle with Egypt, but they remain well placed to qualify automatically.

Avoiding defeat against Zimbabwe in their final fixture will be enough to secure second place, and even with a loss, the Bafana Bafana would still finish third — and remain in contention via the best third-placed route — provided Angola fail to beat Egypt.

However, defeat to Zimbabwe combined with an Angola victory would see South Africa eliminated from the tournament.

ANGOLA (ONE POINT)

Angola sit third on one point after losing to South Africa before drawing with Zimbabwe on matchday two.

The Palancas Negras must beat group leaders Egypt to stand any realistic chance of progression, either directly or as one of the best third-placed teams.

Victory could lift them into second place if South Africa lose to Zimbabwe, although goal difference and other tiebreakers may come into play.

If Angola win and South Africa avoid defeat, the Palancas Negras would likely finish third, a position that could still be enough to progress, but failure to take maximum points against Egypt would all but confirm their elimination.

ZIMBABWE (ONE POINT)

Sitting at the bottom of the group, Zimbabwe are in a similar position to Angola after losing to Egypt and drawing with the Palancas Negras.

The Warriors must defeat South Africa on matchday three to keep their qualification hopes alive, with victory potentially lifting them into second place depending on the outcome of Angola’s clash with Egypt.

Failure to win would effectively end Zimbabwe’s campaign, as finishing third with fewer than three points offers little hope of progressing via the best third-placed route.