Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rotherham United win with a probability of 56.43%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rotherham United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.89%) and 0-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 1-0 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rotherham United would win this match.