EFL Cup

EFL Cup | Third Round

Sep 22, 2020 at 7pm UK

Rodney Parade

Newport
3 - 1
Watford

Abrahams (18' pen.), Labadie (28'), Amond (65')
Labadie (42'), Bennett (80')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Penaranda (54' pen.)
Stevenson (17'), Agyakwa (40'), Penaranda (62'), Pussetto (76')
Perica (89')

The Match

Match Report

Watford arrived at Rodney Parade unbeaten in their three outings this season but lost to League Two Newport.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup third-round clash between Newport County and Watford, including team news and predicted lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Watford had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.

Result
Newport County	Draw	Watford
41.18%	27.29%	31.53%

Both teams to score 49.17%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.82%

56.18%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.76%

77.24%

Newport County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.16%

26.84%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.86%

62.14%

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.21%

32.79%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.64%

69.35%

Score Analysis

Newport County 41.17%

Watford 31.53%

Draw 27.28%

Newport County	Draw	Watford
1-0 @ 11.57% 2-1 @ 8.49% 2-0 @ 7.61% 3-1 @ 3.72% 3-0 @ 3.34% 3-2 @ 2.08% 4-1 @ 1.22% 4-0 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.05% Total : 41.17%	1-1 @ 12.9% 0-0 @ 8.8% 2-2 @ 4.73% Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.28%	0-1 @ 9.81% 1-2 @ 7.2% 0-2 @ 5.47% 1-3 @ 2.67% 0-3 @ 2.03% 2-3 @ 1.76% Other @ 2.59% Total : 31.53%