Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 59.65%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Jong PSV had a probability of 19.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.11%) and 0-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.65%), while for a Jong PSV win it was 2-1 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.