Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emmen win with a probability of 45.06%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 32.96% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emmen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.65%) and 1-3 (5.53%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.