Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 45.32%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 31.75% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.94%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.14%). The actual scoreline of 5-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong Ajax would win this match.