Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 57.77%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for De Graafschap had a probability of 21.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.48%) and 1-0 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.63%), while for a De Graafschap win it was 1-2 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.