Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emmen win with a probability of 53.11%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 25.47% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emmen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.95%) and 1-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (6.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.