Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 52.43%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 26.26% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.6%) and 1-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.