Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 62.42%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Jong FC Utrecht had a probability of 17.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.22%) and 1-0 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.09%), while for a Jong FC Utrecht win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong AZ would win this match.