Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 51.49%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 26.99% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.54%) and 1-0 (6.48%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong AZ would win this match.