Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Helmond Sport win with a probability of 43.49%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 33.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Helmond Sport win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.07%) and 2-0 (6.06%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Helmond Sport in this match.