Two sides locked in the Championship relegation battle go head to head on Saturday afternoon as Derby County host Rotherham United.
The two clubs are both currently sitting in the bottom three but know that they have the chance to move to safety at the weekend as 21st-placed Sheffield Wednesday are not in action.
Match preview
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Derby's players have been back at their Moor Farm training ground this week after a coronavirus outbreak shut the facility and forced the club to play a team of academy players in the FA Cup against Chorley last weekend.
The young Rams were beaten 2-0 by the National League North side, meaning attention will now solely be on the Championship and finding a way out of the predicament that Derby find themselves in.
The East Midlands outfit have spent the majority of the campaign in the relegation zone and although an emphatic 4-0 win away at Birmingham City ensured they ended 2020 on a high, a 1-0 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday on New Year's Day was a reminder that there is still plenty of work to do, amid unrest behind the scenes due to unpaid wages and takeover delays.
Nonetheless, Derby are certainly becoming a stronger side under caretaker boss Wayne Rooney, with the game at Hillsborough being just their second defeat in nine matches. The Rams also have the third-best defence in the bottom half and have kept five clean sheets in their last seven matches.
It is at the other end where the problems lie, as they are the league's lowest scorers, with only Colin Kazim-Richards and Jason Knight (both three goals) scoring more than twice. Rooney will also be concerned with his team's form at Pride Park, where they have won just once all season – no Championship club has picked up fewer points at home.
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However, something will have to give on Saturday as they welcome a Rotherham side that have picked up the joint-fewest away points in the division, winning only once -on the opening day - and losing their last seven matches on the road.
Paul Warne's men were beaten 2-1 by Everton in the FA Cup last weekend, but they did deservedly take the Premier League side to extra-time as Matthew Olosunde cancelled out Cenk Tosun's early opener.
Warne will take plenty of positives from the game at Goodison Park as he looks to halt his team's alarming slide down the Championship table. A run of four points from their last nine games, as well as three of their fixtures being postponed, meant that the Millers fell into the bottom three for the first time all season following a 2-1 loss to Barnsley in their most recent league outing; they do, however, have games in hand over the teams around them.
Rotherham will not have fond memories of their last trip to Derbyshire in March 2019, when a Martyn Waghorn hat-trick helped the hosts win 6-1. The Yorkshire side have not won any of their last 13 away games at Derby, meaning they have never won at Pride Park, which opened in 1997.
Derby County Championship form: DDWLWL
Derby County form (all competitions): DWLWLL
Rotherham United Championship form: LLLWLL
Rotherham United form (all competitions): LLWLLL
Team News
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Waghorn will be keen to repeat his heroics from two years ago and is available again after serving a three-match suspension for his red card against Preston North End.
Tom Lawrence was set to return from a month-long ankle injury against Chorley before Derby's coronavirus outbreak but should now take his place on the left wing.
Freddie Ladapo missed Rotherham's trip to Everton with a groin issue but has trained this week, and Warne has said the striker should be named on the bench at Pride Park.
It is a similar situation for long-term absentees Clark Robertson and Shaun MacDonald, who are now back available but not yet ready to play from the start.
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Marshall; Byrne, Wisdom, Clarke, Forsyth; Shinnie, Bielik, Knight; Waghorn, Kazim-Richards, Lawrence
Rotherham United possible starting lineup:
Johansson; Olosunde, A. MacDonald, Ihiekwe, Wood, Harding; Vassell, Lindsay, Barlaser, Wiles; Smith
We say: Derby County 0-0 Rotherham United
Rotherham need to build on a promising performance at Goodison Park last weekend if they are to improve on their horrendous away form, but Derby have not had the ideal preparation for this game with players still not receiving their December wages, so the Millers might just take a point from Pride Park.
Top betting tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rotherham United win with a probability of 37.1%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 35.04% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rotherham United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.92%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (10.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Rotherham United in this match.
