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[monks data]
Derby logo
Championship | Gameweek 5
Aug 28, 2021 at 12.30pm UK
Pride Park
Nottingham Forest logo

Derby
1 - 1
Nott'm Forest

Lawrence (11')
Jozwiak (39'), Morrison (68'), Byrne (80'), Sibley (83')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Johnson (82')
Garner (35')

Preview: Derby County vs. Nottingham Forest - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Derby County and Nottingham Forest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Derby County head into Saturday's East Midlands derby with Nottingham Forest looking to cement their place in mid-table of the Championship.

Meanwhile, Forest have lost each of their four second-tier fixtures this season, leaving Chris Hughton's side as the only team without a point in the division.


Match preview

Derby County manager Wayne Rooney pictured on August 7, 2021© Reuters

Given the off-the-field issues which have led to restrictions on transfers, Wayne Rooney will be delighted that Derby have already collected five points this season.

There is a strong argument that it should have been more after conceding two last-gasp goals at Peterborough United, but last weekend's goalless draw with Middlesbrough kept things ticking over before the first international break.

While there are signs that scoring goals could prove to be an issue without Colin Kazim-Richards in the side, Phil Jagielka and Curtis Davies have formed a promising partnership at the back.

Although other players are available to step into the side for the veteran pair, their experience has helped the Rams to consecutive clean sheets in the league.

Their know-how could also prove vital this weekend with some of the club's younger players having to contend with a showdown against their neighbours in front of a packed Pride Park for the first time.

Nottingham Forest manager Chris Hughton gives instructions to his players on August 8, 2021© Reuters

Rooney will be the first person to stress that a derby can act as an equaliser when it comes to facing opponents in contrasting form, and Hughton will be relaying that scenario in the opposite manner.

Despite losing by one-goal margins in four matches in a row, few Forest supporters will class their defeats as unfortunate with Hughton's side continuing to offer very little in the final third.

Hughton effectively surrendered the club's place in the EFL Cup by naming a young side against Wolverhampton Wanderers, and it only strengthened the argument that he must make several changes in personnel to save his job in the dugout.

Philip Zinckernagel has been the sole shining light in the final third, heaping the pressure on Lyle Taylor and Lewis Grabban to find some form for the first time in a year.

Derby County Championship form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D

Derby County form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L

Nottingham Forest Championship form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Nottingham Forest form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L



Team News

Derby County's Sam Baldock celebrates scoring against Hull City in the Championship on August 18, 2021© Reuters

Barring any late fitness issues, Rooney should revert back to the Derby XI which started the fixture with Middlesbrough.

Jagielka, Davies and Sam Baldock were all rested for the EFL Cup tie with Sheffield United, while Ravel Morrison remained as an unused substitute.

Having made widespread changes for the Wolves game, Hughton will select the majority of the players who lost 1-0 at Stoke City.

Joe Garner, who has signed on loan from Manchester United, is in contention for a place in midfield, potentially at the expense of Joao Carvalho.

Brennan Johnson could also be preferred to Alex Mighten on the left flank.

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Roos; Byrne, Jagielka, Davies, Forsyth; Bird, Shinnie; Sibley, Morrison, Jozwiak; Baldock

Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Samba; Back, Figueiredo, McKenna, Bong; Yates, Cafu; Zinckernagel, Garner, Johnson; Taylor


SM words green background

We say: Derby County 1-1 Nottingham Forest

With each of their setbacks coming by a narrow scoreline, you have to believe that things will begin to turn in Forest's favour sooner rather than later. A clash with their rivals could be just the fixture that they require, leading us to predict a competitive draw at Pride Park.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 32.68% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.85%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 0-1 (11.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Derby vs Nott'm Forest

Derby County
57.1%
Draw
23.8%
Nottingham Forest
19.0%
63
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CPortsmouth452713576413594
2Derby CountyDerby452781076373989
3Bolton WanderersBolton452511983483586
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough452581286582883
5Barnsley4521121281631875
6Lincoln CityLincoln4520141165382774
7Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4521111377552274
8Blackpool4521101463451873
9Stevenage4518141355451068
10Wycombe WanderersWycombe451614155955462
11Leyton Orient451711175054-462
12Exeter CityExeter451710184559-1461
13Wigan AthleticWigan451910166156559
14Northampton TownNorthampton45178205665-959
15Bristol Rovers45169205266-1457
16Charlton AthleticCharlton451120146464053
17Reading451511196568-350
18Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury45139233464-3048
19Cambridge UnitedCambridge451211223961-2247
20Burton Albion451210233964-2546
21Cheltenham TownCheltenham45128254063-2344
RFleetwood TownFleetwood45913234672-2640
RPort Vale451010254174-3340
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4579294179-3830


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