UEFA Nations League

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Nations League | League A

Oct 11, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

Laugardalsvöllur

Iceland
0 - 3
Denmark

Dadi Bodvarsson (51'), Magnusson (86')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Mar Sigurjonsson (45' og.), Eriksen (46'), Skov (61')

Preview: Iceland vs. Denmark - prediction, team news, lineups

By Darren Plant, Senior Reporter

Published: October 9 2020 | 18:30

Last updated: June 5 2024 | 13:46

Sports Mole previews Sunday's UEFA Nations League fixture between Iceland and Denmark, including team news and predicted lineups.

Iceland and Denmark square off in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday evening having failed to post a win during their opening two matches.

The visitors managed to record a draw against England on matchday two, increasing the pressure on the home side to get maximum points on the board to move off the bottom of Group A2.

Match preview

Belgium's Toby Alderweireld in action with Denmark's Martin Braithwaite in the UEFA Nations League on September 5, 2020 © Reuters

Denmark boss Kasper Hjulmand would have had high hopes of building on the work of his predecessor Age Hareide when being provided with back-to-back home games in this competition.

However, recording just one point from the fixtures against Belgium and England without scoring a goal has left the recently-appointed head coach with work to do in order to convince supporters that he is the right man for the job.

Regardless of the routine 4-0 victory over the Faroe Islands earlier this week, Hareide needs his players to raise their game in a competitive fixture, especially against the weakest opposition in this group.

The 48-year-old has plenty of time to get his side firing ahead of Euro 2020, but he will be aware that he can ill-afford another negative result at this stage of his tenure.

Denmark have not recorded a win over strong opposition since edging out Switzerland by a 1-0 scoreline in a qualification fixture 12 months ago.

As far as Iceland are concerned, Erik Hamren will want to build on Thursday night's excellent 2-1 victory over Romania in the Euro 2020 playoffs.

After Gylfi Sigurdsson struck twice during the opening 45 minutes, the Scandinavian outfit were able to hold onto their lead to put them within one win of another appearance at a major tournament.

Ideally, Hamren may have wanted the opportunity to rest several members of his limited squad, but facing the Danes on home territory theoretically represents their best chance of getting maximum points on the board in this group.

If Strakarnir okkar suffer defeat in this contest, it would leave them requiring a minimum of four points to have a chance of avoiding relegation to Division B.

Iceland Nations League form: LL
Iceland form (all competitions): WWWLLW

Denmark Nations League form: LD
Denmark form (all competitions): WWDLDW

Team News

Iceland manager Erik Hamren pictured in September 2020 © Reuters

Despite being used in attack against Romania, Gylfi Sigurdsson could drop back into Iceland's midfield for this fixture.

Jon Dadi Bodvarsson may be brought into the team, while defender Sverrir Ingason has served the one-match ban handed to him for his dismissal against England.

Christian Eriksen will be one of several players who retain their place in the Denmark side after the comfortable victory against the Faroe Islands.

However, Andreas Christensen, Simon Kjaer, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Thomas Delaney and Kasper Dolberg should come into the team after their minimal involvement on Thursday.

Iceland possible starting lineup:
Halldorsson; Palsson, Arnason, Ingason, Magnusson; A.Sigurdsson, Bjarnason, G.Sigurdsson, J.Gudmundsson; A.Gudmundsson, Bodvarsson

Denmark possible starting lineup:
Schmeichel; Wass, Kjaer, Christensen, Skov; Delaney, Hojberg; Poulsen, Eriksen, Braithwaite; Dolberg

SM words green background

We say: Iceland 1-2 Denmark

Both nations may be caught between wanting to play offensive football and ensuring that they do not concede at the other end. That should make for a competitive affair, but we feel that the visitors should have enough quality in the final third to edge out the minnows of the group.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Darren Plant

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Denmark win with a probability of 53.79%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Denmark win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.76%) and 1-2 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a Iceland win it was 1-0 (7.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Denmark would win this match.