Dallas have a chance to leapfrog the San Jose Earthquakes and move into 10th in the Western Conference with a victory on Saturday at Toyota Stadium.
The Toros ended their three-game road trip on a sour note, dropping a 3-2 decision to Real Salt Lake, while the Goonies conceded in the 89th minute last week, losing 1-0 to the Colorado Rapids.
Match preview
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Time and again, Dallas have missed their opportunities to move up the table and their defeat last Saturday was another chance to close that gap, but unfortunately, they failed to do so.
Luchi Gonzalez got the start that he wanted from his side against Claret and Cobalt, scoring the opening goal after 19 minutes, but then inexplicably, they began to sit back and try to hold on as Salt Lake peppered them with shots.
While they were able to fight their way back into the match, it was too little too late by the time Jesus Ferreira made it 3-2, and Dallas suffered a narrow defeat and a painful one at that, given that they entered that match only two points behind Salt Lake for the final playoff spot.
At the end of the day, all you can focus on is the here and now, and that has to be their mindset moving forward with three games in a week beginning on Saturday.
On their recent road trip, they gave away far too much space to their opponents and plenty of quality scoring opportunities, allowing 23 shots on target in their last three fixtures and conceding eight goals.
With only 11 games remaining in the regular season, they are running out of chances to close that gap for a playoff berth, and the players will know that they cannot afford another slow start like in their last match against the Quakes when they conceded three goals in less than an hour.
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If you compare the start of the season for San Jose to where they are now, it is incredible to see how much this team have changed.
At the start of the year, they were a powerhouse offensively, scoring 10 goals in their first three games, but over the last two months, we have seen a lot of tactical and low-scoring chess matches between them and their opponents, with the Quakes grinding out several single points.
Last Saturday, Matias Almeyda saw his side in a real dogfight with the Burgundy Boys, and although they only fired two shots on target, they had their share of scoring chances in the early stages.
In the end, that final pass was lacking, and they gave Colorado one too many opportunities, as the Rapids made them pay with a goal from Dominique Badji late in the contest.
Their play away from home has come a long way since a 5-0 defeat to Orlando City in June, as they are unbeaten in six road contests, including victories over the LA Galaxy and the Western Conference leaders, the Seattle Sounders.
September could be a pivotal month for this side, currently four points below the playoff line, but with some critical encounters versus teams who are neck and neck with them in the standings, including Dallas, Real Salt Lake and Los Angeles FC.
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Team News
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Franco Jara netted his fourth goal of the season last weekend for the Toros, Jader Obrian collected his first assist this year and Phelipe Megiolaro made his second consecutive start in goal replacing Jimmy Maurer and making a season-high nine saves.
The aforementioned Maurer is out with a shoulder injury, Beni Redzic has an ankle sprain, Johnny Nelson is suffering from back spasms, Bressan also has shoulder problems and Facundo Quignon is nursing a groin issue.
Bryan Acosta, Ricardo Pepi, Szabolcs Schon and Freddy Vargas are all unlikely to be available as they were recently away on international duty for their World Cup 2022 qualifiers for Honduras, the USA, Hungary and Venezuela, respectively.
Quakes midfielder Jackson Yueill was called up for the American team earlier this week for their qualifying fixture on Wednesday against Honduras, so he and Marcos Lopez, who was with Peru for their qualifiers, are probably not going to be ready to play in this one.
Matt Bersano is questionable with a left knee problem and Eric Remedi will be suspended for this game following his yellow card versus the Rapids.
San Jose made one change to their starting lineup last Saturday from the team that began their game against the Galaxy with Nathan returning to central defence in place of Marcos Lopez and Christian Espinoza came on as a substitute in their last game after sitting out of their previous encounter.
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Megiolaro; Hollingshead, Hedges, Munjoma, Twumasi; Quignon, Cerrillo; Ricaurte, Ferreira, Obrian; Jara
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Abecasis, Nathan, Alanis, Beason; Marie, Judson; Fierro, Espinoza, Salinas; Ebobisse
We say: Dallas 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes
Dallas have been shut out of their last two home games, but that was against the top two teams in the conference (the Seattle Sounders and Sporting Kansas City) and they are traditionally a lot more well-structured and disciplined at Toyota Stadium.
Drawing matches is just what we have gotten used to seeing from the Quakes, who earned four straight single points in July, and although their last two fixtures were not draws, this team seem to play well enough to earn a result but not usually good enough to win.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dallas win with a probability of 56.36%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 20.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dallas win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 0-1 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
