Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 38.67%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 34.04% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.23%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-0 (10.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.