Costa Rica host Mexico at the weekend in the second match of the Octagonal stage of qualifying for the 2022 World Cup in the CONCACAF region.
The hosts will be looking for their first win after drawing in the opener in midweek, whilst their visitors will be hoping for back-to-back wins after a late winner last time out.
Match preview
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After qualifying for four of the last five World Cups, Costa Rica will fancy their chances again in qualification for Qatar next year.
The man tasked with getting them there is Luis Fernando Suarez, who was appointed in June this year, after previous national jobs with Ecuador and Honduras earlier in his career.
Thankfully for Costa Rica, the Colombian veteran has experience in taking his sides to the world stage, after he guided Ecuador to the 2002 and 2006 World Cups, and Honduras to the finals in 2014.
His reign began successfully with three wins from three in the group stages of the CONCACAF Gold Cup earlier in the summer, over Guadeloupe, Suriname and Jamaica.
However, since then he has tasted defeat against Canada in the quarter-finals of the Gold Cup to Canada, followed by a pair of 0-0 draws in a friendly with El Salvador and most recently with Panama in midweek.
The goalless encounter in Panama was a point that the Costa Ricans were fortunate to gain, after being dominated for most of the match by their hosts - who had 18 shots to Costa Rica's four.
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Unlike their hosts, Mexico began this stage of the qualifying campaign with a victory, defeating Jamaica 2-1 earlier this week.
It was a much-deserved victory for the Mexicans, who hammered their opponents for much of the match with 27 shots to five, and 73% possession.
However, they had to grind out the win in the dying minutes; Henry Martin was the hero with an 89th-minute winner to end the frustrations and ensure his country took home all three points in the opener.
That result will be a boost to a Mexico side that has suffered a couple of heartaches this summer already, after losing in the finals of both the Gold Cup and the CONCACAF Nations League to rivals USA after extra time on both occasions.
The Mexicans now head to Costa Rica this weekend looking to make it back-to-back wins against a nation that they are unbeaten against since 2013.
Eight meetings have been played out in various competitions since then, with this weekend's visitors winning four of the encounters and drawing the other four.
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Team News
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After skipping the Gold Cup, experienced Paris Saint-Germain goalkeeper Keylor Navas returned in goal for Costa Rica against Panama and was in fine form to keep out the constant onslaught from their hosts.
Experience is something the Costa Ricans possess in riches, and Bryan Ruiz may start this time out after only making a substitute appearance in the week.
He has earned well over 100 caps for his nation, along with captain Celso Borges as well, who will take his place in midfield.
As for Mexico, they continue to miss a number of key players due to travelling restrictions placed on some of their European-based stars, such as key striker Raul Jimenez.
Santiago Gimenez has taken Jimenez's place in the squad.
The experienced Hector Herrera was omitted from selection for these qualifiers, whilst another key man Hirving Lozano remains absent due to a head injury.
Costa Rica possible starting lineup:
Navas; Blanco, Duarte, Calvo, Oviedo; Guzman; Ruiz, Borges, Leal, Lassiter; Ugalde
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Sanchez, Montes, Araujo, Gallardo; Romo, Alvarez; Alvarado, Cordova, Vega; Martin
We say: Costa Rica 0-1 Mexico
Despite missing key players, Mexico should be expected to edge out Costa Rica at the weekend. They still possess the greater quality in their squad but it will be far from easy, so we are predicting a narrow 1-0 win to the Mexicans.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 49.19%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Costa Rica had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.38%) and 1-2 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.3%), while for a Costa Rica win it was 1-0 (8.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Mexico in this match.
