Corinthians
Copa Sudamericana | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Aug 23, 2023 at 1.30am UK
Arena Corinthians
Estudiantes

Corinthians
1 - 0
Estudiantes

Gil (17', 17')
Mendez (19'), Mendez (19'), Santos (30'), Santos (30')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Rodriguez (31'), Rodriguez (31'), Rollheiser (71'), Rollheiser (71'), Godoy (90+1'), Godoy (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Corinthians and Estudiantes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Corinthians

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Cruzeiro 1-1 Corinthians
Sunday, August 20 at 1am in Brasileiro

Estudiantes

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Belgrano 2-1 Estudiantes
Thursday, August 17 at 11.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 44.04%. A win for Estudiantes had a probability of 28% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.66%) and 2-1 (8.51%). The likeliest Estudiantes win was 0-1 (9.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Corinthians in this match.

Result
CorinthiansDrawEstudiantes
44.04% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)27.96% (0.010999999999999 0.01)28% (0.02 0.02)
Both teams to score 45.64% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.13% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)59.87% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.86% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)80.14% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Corinthians Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.96% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)27.04% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.6% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)62.4% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Estudiantes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.55%37.45% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.77%74.23% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Score Analysis
    Corinthians 44.04%
    Estudiantes 28%
    Draw 27.94%
CorinthiansDrawEstudiantes
1-0 @ 13.24%
2-0 @ 8.66% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.51% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.78% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 3.71% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 1.82% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.24% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 1.21% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 1.88%
Total : 44.04%
1-1 @ 13%
0-0 @ 10.12% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.18% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.65%
Total : 27.94%
0-1 @ 9.95% (0.011000000000001 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.39% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 4.88% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.09% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-3 @ 1.6% (0.002 0)
2-3 @ 1.37% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 1.73%
Total : 28%

How you voted: Corinthians vs Estudiantes

Corinthians
77.8%
Draw
11.1%
Estudiantes
11.1%
18