Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 44.04%. A win for Estudiantes had a probability of 28% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.66%) and 2-1 (8.51%). The likeliest Estudiantes win was 0-1 (9.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Corinthians in this match.