Copa Sudamericana
Mar 5, 2026 12.30am
1
2
HT : 1 1
LIVE Estadio Atanasio Girardot
  • Nicolás Santiago Rodríguez Calderón 28' goal
  • goal Rodrigo Contreras 21'
  • yellowcard Leonardo Castro 42'

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Nacional

All competitions

Millonarios

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Atletico Nacional win with a probability of 56.47%. A draw has a probability of 23.34% and a win for Millonarios has a probability of 20.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Nacional win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (10.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.04%) , while for a Millonarios win it is 0-1 (6.19%).

Result

Atletico Nacional 56.47%
Draw 23.34% (+0.04)
Millonarios 20.19% (-0.03)

Both Teams to Score: 

49.49% (-0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.74% (-0.05)
Under 1.5 25.26% (+0.05)
Over 2.5 50.51% (-0.08)
Under 2.5 49.49% (+0.08)
Over 3.5 28.06% (-0.07)
Under 3.5 71.91% (+0.07)
Over 4.5 16.7% (-0.06)
Under 4.5 83.3% (+0.05)

First Half Winner

Atletico Nacional 43.73%
Draw 39.57%
Millonarios 16.7%

Team To Score First

Atletico Nacional 66.25% (-0.02)
No Goal 6.92% (+0.02)
Millonarios 26.83%

Corners

Over 8 47.85%
Equal 8 12.1%
Under 8 40.05%
Over 9 36.44%
Equal 9 11.41%
Under 9 52.15%
Over 10.5 26.55%
Under 10.5 73.45%

Atletico Nacional Goals

Over 1.5 51.13% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 48.87% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 24.89% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 75.11% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 10.01% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 89.99% (+0.01)

Millonarios Goals

Over 0.5 54.63% (-0.04)
Under 0.5 45.37% (+0.04)
Over 1.5 22.06% (-0.05)
Under 1.5 77.94% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 6.85% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 93.15% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 1.83% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 98.17% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Atletico Nacional 56.47%
Draw 23.34%
Millonarios 20.19%
Atletico Nacional
1-0 @ 12.15% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 10.3% (+0.02)
2-1 @ 10.06%
3-0 @ 6.08% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 5.28% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.68% (-0.01)
Other @ 9.92% (-0.02)
Total : 56.47%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.04% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 6.92% (+0.02)
2-2 @ 4.45%
Other @ 0.09% (+0.01)
Total : 23.34%
Millonarios
0-1 @ 6.19%
1-2 @ 5.19%
0-2 @ 2.89%
1-3 @ 1.62% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.43% (-0.02)
0-3 @ 1.13%
Other @ 1.74% (-0.03)
Total : 20.19%