Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Velez Sarsfield and River Plate, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
We said: Velez Sarsfield 1-3 River Plate
Goals should be on the menu between two Argentinian outfits who always know how to find the back of the net, although the River Plate defence is far more steadfast than Velez's.
Keeping a red-hot Alvarez at bay for 90 minutes will be a struggle for the hosts in the absence of their two most inspirational centre-backs, and we can only envisage Gallardo's side claiming a healthy first-leg advantage.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 45.15%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 29.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.17%) and 0-2 (7.76%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.