Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 38.19%. A win for 2 de Mayo had a probability of 33.86% and a draw had a probability of 27.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alianza Lima win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.84%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest 2 de Mayo win was 1-0 (10.54%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.