Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 43.77%. A win for Ourense CF had a probability of 28.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (8.51%). The likeliest Ourense CF win was 1-0 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.