Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celta Vigo win with a probability of 38.13%. A win for Amorebieta had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celta Vigo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Amorebieta win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Celta Vigo would win this match.