Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bermuda win with a probability of 40.61%. A win for Dominica had a probability of 36.35% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bermuda win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.32%) and 2-0 (5.36%). The likeliest Dominica win was 1-2 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bermuda would win this match.