Two struggling MLS sides are looking to end their lengthy winless runs on Friday when the Columbus Crew host their state rivals FC Cincinnati from Lower.com Field.
The Orange-and-Blue are coming off a 4-1 defeat to the New England Revolution and are winless in their last 10 matches, while the reigning MLS Cup champions have lost their previous six games, including a 2-1 decision last weekend to the Seattle Sounders.
Match preview
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It was the same old story for Caleb Porter and his Columbus Crew side versus the Sounders last Saturday, good but not good enough.
That has been a recurring theme for this side, who have dropped out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, currently sitting three points behind DC United for that position.
It is puzzling to see a team built on defensive resilience, discipline and compactness struggle as much as they have, conceding 15 goals on their current slide.
There are many issues that Porter needs to address to turn this season around, but perhaps the biggest priority at the moment is figuring out how to unlock their offensive game, scoring only one goal in their previous three matches.
Last season, they had seven different players who scored multiple goals and eight who had numerous assists, but so far, after 21 games this year, many of their top threats have failed to live up to expectations.
The Crew have lost their last four fixtures by a single goal, so it is not as if they are being dominated, but they lack the imagination and creativity to threaten their opponents, firing only three shots or fewer on target in each of their previous three games.
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Speaking of sides lacking creativity, Jaap Stam's FC Cincinnati have certainly had their share of problems in that department of late.
The Orange-and-Blue did fire more shots on target last Saturday versus the Revs (four) than they had in any of their previous five games, but by the time they made one of their opportunities count, they were already trailing 3-0.
In their last two defeats to New England and Nashville, this team gave away the match with poor defending in the opening half-hour, though they looked solid in between those matches, collecting three clean sheets and four draws.
Assessing their current winless slide is complicated because, on the one hand, they equalled their longest unbeaten run in franchise history (four games), however scoring goals remains an issue for this team who were the lowest-scoring side in MLS over their previous two seasons, and they are the second-lowest at the moment with only 19 goals in 19 matches.
Giving the ball away in transition is an area that this team struggled with last weekend, allowing the top-scoring team in the league to get the ball in dangerous areas far too often.
Limiting time and space to a Columbus side who are reeling at the moment will be necessary for this team, who are currently 10 points back of a playoff position.
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Team News
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The Crew signed French fullback Steven Moreira for the remainder of the season pending his International Transfer Certificate and P-1 Visa with options for 2022 and 2023, while the team could be on the verge of another major move as former MLS Golden Boot winner Sebastian Giovinco has been linked to a possible move to the MLS Cup champions.
Their top goalscorer in the regular season a year ago, Gyasi Zardes, missed their last game with a left thigh injury, Aidan Morris and Perry Kitchen still have left knee injuries, Artur is nursing a right hip problem, Milton Valenzuela has a right thigh issue, Josh Williams has a left ankle injury, Marlon Hairston is dealing with a problem in his left thigh and Luis Diaz came on as a substitute versus Seattle after missing their previous match with a right shoulder problem.
Bradley Wright-Phillips scored his first goal of the season for the Crew in a losing effort last weekend, while Miguel Berry started as the lone striker up top and Vito Wormgoor and Saad Abdul-Salaam began the last match in central defence.
Cincinnati added an experienced defender to their roster, signing Chris Duvall until the end of the year with a club option in 2022.
Brenner leads the team in scoring with five goals this year, while goalkeeper Przemyslaw Tyton conceded four goals on six efforts versus New England after maintaining a clean sheet in their previous outing versus CF Montreal.
Allan Cruz is eligible to return following his yellow card suspension, while the club are still missing Calvin Harris with a meniscus problem, Maikel van der Werff has a sports hernia, Zico Bailey has a hip issue and Joe Gyau is questionable with an Achilles injury.
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Abdul-Salaam, Jonathan, Wormgoor, Afful; Fraser, Nagbe; Santos, Zelarayan, Molino; Wright-Phillips
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Tyton; Matarrita, Duvall, Cameron, Hagglund; Kubo, Cruz, Acosta, Barreal; Brenner, Vazquez
We say: Columbus Crew 3-0 FC Cincinnati
The Crew know that they are a lot better than their current record indicates, and they can probably afford to take a few more chances moving forward against a Cincinnati squad who are poor in the final third.
Despite their lopsided defeat last week, Cincy have been much better defensively of late, but they still have some work to do away from home, allowing 12 goals in their previous three road matches.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 57.58%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 19.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.21%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 0-1 (5.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.
