Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sichuan Jiuniu win with a probability of 47.25%. A win for Wuhan Three Towns had a probability of 26.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sichuan Jiuniu win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.17%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Wuhan Three Towns win was 1-0 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.