Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shenzhen win with a probability of 50.64%. A win for Guangzhou City had a probability of 25.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shenzhen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.36%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Guangzhou City win was 2-1 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood.