Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 69.52%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Guangzhou had a probability of 12.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.65%) and 0-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.24%), while for a Guangzhou win it was 2-1 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.