Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 48.7%. A win for Shandong Taishan had a probability of 28.26% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.91%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Shandong Taishan win was 1-2 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.