Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 53.34%. A win for Henan had a probability of 23.49% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.77%) and 2-0 (8.78%). The likeliest Henan win was 1-2 (6.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.