Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Henan win with a probability of 59.98%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Qingdao Hainiu had a probability of 16.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Henan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.77%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.88%), while for a Qingdao Hainiu win it was 0-1 (6.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Henan would win this match.