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Cheltenham Town
League One | Gameweek 22
Dec 11, 2021 at 3pm UK
Whaddon Road
Lincoln City

Cheltenham
2 - 2
Lincoln

May (17'), Blair (90+5')
Long (59'), Raglan (69'), May (71'), Williams (90+3'), Pollock (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Bishop (69', 90+1')
Bridcutt (65'), McGrandles (75')

Preview: Cheltenham Town vs. Lincoln City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Cheltenham Town and Lincoln City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Cheltenham Town welcome Lincoln City to the Jonny-Rocks Stadium on Saturday, with both teams looking to bounce back from particularly disappointing defeats last time out.

The hosts were hammered 5-0 at home to Cambridge United to leave them 12th in the League One table, while Lincoln slumped to a 2-0 loss at relegation-threatened Crewe Alexandra.


Match preview

Cheltenham Town's manager Michael Duff and Sean Long after the match in February 2021© Reuters

After an eight-game unbeaten run beforehand, December has not been a kind month for Michael Duff and his side so far, with Cheltenham having lost both outings and conceding nine goals in the process.

The Robins kicked off the month with a 4-3 cup defeat to fellow third-tier side AFC Wimbledon, falling just short of a memorable comeback as they were knocked out of the FA Cup, but it is their midweek loss to Cambridge which will sting most heading into Saturday's match.

Cheltenham went into that game sitting four points clear of their visitors, but they were well beaten as Joe Ironside's 25-minute hat-trick capped off a five-star showing for Cambridge.

Not only was that Cheltenham's heaviest home defeat under Duff, but it is also their joint-biggest defeat in any Football League home game, and as such they will be demanding a response this weekend.

The hosts have not been beaten in back-to-back home league games since September 2018, and they had been in decent form at Whaddon Road prior to Tuesday's anomaly, going unbeaten in their previous six home outings, including four wins inside 90 minutes and another victory on penalties.

Duff's side will be slight favourites on Saturday, and they will know that they cannot afford many more slip-ups if they seriously harbour ambitious playoff hopes, with the gap having now grown to nine points.

Any sort of playoff push would be some achievement for the promoted Robins in what is their first season at this level since 2008-09, but greater consistency will be required if they are to stand any chance - Duff's men have won seven, drawn six and lost seven of their 20 outings this term.

Simply being comfortably clear of the relegation zone will be enough for many Cheltenham fans, but if they are to close the gap to the top six this weekend then they will need to end a three-game winless run against Lincoln in the league, while the Imps have also won two of their last three trips to Whaddon Road.

However, they will make their latest journey there in dire form, having lost their last five games across all competitions and having not won in the league since October 26.

Exits from the EFL Trophy and FA Cup have been sandwiched between three straight League One defeats, during which time Lincoln have failed to even score a goal, leaving last season's beaten playoff finalists languishing in 18th place.

Indeed, Michael Appleton's side have only found the back of the net once in their last six games across all competitions, including a four-match drought in the league.

Only four teams have scored fewer goals than Lincoln's 20 in 20 games in League One this term, which is no surprise given that they went throughout the whole of November without scoring and have started off the same in December.

A 2-0 defeat against a Crewe Alexandra side that went into that match bottom of the table and having only won twice all season was particularly disappointing, although Appleton placed plenty of the blame on the referee having seen his side reduced to 10 men and give away penalties for both goals.

Regardless, the result leaves Lincoln facing the prospect of losing four successive Football League games without scoring for the first time since 2002.

Only three points now separate them from the relegation zone and so improvement is needed if they are to secure a fourth successive season in League One, although it should also be noted that victory on Saturday would lift them to within three points of their mid-table hosts.

Cheltenham Town League One form:
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L

Cheltenham Town form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L

Lincoln City League One form:
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L

Lincoln City form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L



Team News

Lincoln City manager Michael Appleton looks dejected as he applauds fans after the match in May 202© Reuters

Duff could look to make changes following the nature of his side's defeat last time out, and Kyle Vassell could be one of those to come into the starting lineup, having missed last weekend's game but returned off the bench in midweek.

Kyle Joseph is also pushing for inclusion, but Conor Thomas and Taylor Perry remain sidelined, while Christian Norton is unlikely to feature ahead of his return to parent club Stoke City in January.

Will Boyle is now back in training and will be pushing for some role in the squad, having fallen short against Cambridge.

While Duff may shake things up for tactical reasons, Appleton will be forced into at least one change following TJ Eyoma's contentious red card against Crewe.

That leaves Lincoln short at the back, with Eyoma himself having been a substitute for Adam Jackson, who was forced off after only 18 minutes through concussion.

Jackson is unlikely to be passed fit in time for Saturday's match, while Lincoln's obvious problems at the other end of the pitch are also rooted in injury troubles.

Top-scorer Anthony Scully remains sidelined, while Tom Hopper has not featured since September as he continues to struggle with a stress fracture to his shin.

There was some good news in midweek, though, as captain Liam Bridcutt returned to the starting XI, although he did only last the first half and may be rested from the off given the quick turnaround in matches.

Cheltenham Town possible starting lineup:
Flinders; Long, Pollock, Freestone; Blair, Sercombe, Chapman, Hussey; Joseph; May, Vassell

Lincoln City possible starting lineup:
Griffiths; Poole, Montsma, Walsh, Robson; McGrandles, Bishop, Sorensen; Nlundulu, Maguire, Bramall


SM words green background

We say: Cheltenham Town 2-0 Lincoln City

Lincoln cannot buy a goal at the moment, and the fact that they only had two shots on target against one of the worst defences in the league last time out suggests that their troubles may not be over yet.

Cheltenham will also be coming into this match short of confidence - and their recent defensive record should give Lincoln some belief that they might end their drought - but the hosts should still have enough to claim all three points this weekend.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 44.53%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 29.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.98%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Cheltenham vs Lincoln

Cheltenham Town
60.0%
Draw
20.0%
Lincoln City
20.0%
5
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Sunderland manager Lee Johnson after the match on September 21, 2021
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