Champions League
Jul 28, 2026 7.45pm
Tynecastle Park

Hearts vs Sturm Graz - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Hearts

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Jul 21, 2026 7.30pm
Sturm Graz 4 - 0 Hearts

Sturm Graz

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Jul 21, 2026 7.30pm
Sturm Graz 4 - 0 Hearts

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Hearts win with a probability of 45.38%. A win for Sturm Graz has a probability of 29.05% and a draw has a probability of 25.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hearts win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win is 0-1 (7.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.17%).

Result

Hearts 45.38% (+0.04)
Draw 25.57%
Sturm Graz 29.05%

Both Teams to Score: 

51% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.27% (-0.03)
Under 1.5 25.73% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 49.44% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 50.56% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 27.33% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 72.67% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 15.61% (-0.01)
Under 4.5 84.39% (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Hearts 28.95%
Draw 42.95%
Sturm Graz 28.1%

Team To Score First

Hearts 48.55%
No Goal 7.27% (+0.01)
Sturm Graz 44.18% (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 62.22%
Equal 8 10.78%
Under 8 27.01%
Over 9 50.85%
Equal 9 11.37%
Under 9 37.78%
Over 10.5 39.83%
Under 10.5 60.17%

Hearts Goals

Over 1.5 42.72% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 57.28% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 18.6% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 81.4% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 6.67% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 93.33% (+0.02)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 0.5 63.61% (-0.03)
Under 0.5 36.39% (+0.03)
Over 1.5 29.89% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 70.11% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 11.18% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 88.82% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 3.73% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 96.27% (+0.01)

Score analysis

Hearts 45.38%
Draw 25.56%
Sturm Graz 29.05%
Hearts
1-0 @ 10.66% (+0.01)
2-1 @ 9.5%
2-0 @ 7.82% (+0.02)
3-1 @ 4.26%
3-0 @ 4.15%
3-2 @ 2.51%
Other @ 6.48%
Total : 45.38%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.17%
0-0 @ 7.27% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 4.92% (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.01%
Other @ 0.19% (-0.02)
Total : 25.56%
Sturm Graz
0-1 @ 7.79% (+0.01)
1-2 @ 6.44% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 4.84% (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.54% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 2.02%
2-3 @ 1.88%
Other @ 3.54%
Total : 29.05%

Head to Head

Champions League
Jul 21, 2026 7.30pm
4
0
HT : 1 0
FT Merkur Arena
  • Jon Gorenc Stankovic 4' goal
  • Jeyland Mitchell 50' goal
  • Luca Weinhandl 53' goal
  • Jon Gorenc Stankovic 56' yellowcard
  • Jürgen Heil 59' goal
  • yellowcard Oisin McEntee 47'
  • yellowcard Amadou Ba-Sy 86'