Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Oct 20, 2021 at 8pm UK

Estádio da Luz

Benfica
0 - 4
Bayern

Otamendi (45'), Mario (51')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Sane (70', 84'), Everton (80' og.), Lewandowski (82')
Upamecano (56'), Hernandez (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Benfica and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 48.66%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.99%) and 0-2 (5.71%). The likeliest Benfica win was 2-1 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Bayern Munich
29.88%	21.46%	48.66%

Both teams to score 68.43%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.3%

30.7%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.97%

52.03%

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.88%

21.11%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.05%

53.95%

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.74%

13.25%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.96%

40.04%

Score Analysis

Benfica 29.88%

Bayern Munich 48.66%

Draw 21.46%

Benfica	Draw	Bayern Munich
2-1 @ 6.84% 1-0 @ 4.35% 3-2 @ 3.58% 3-1 @ 3.55% 2-0 @ 3.38% 3-0 @ 1.76% 4-2 @ 1.39% 4-1 @ 1.38% 4-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.71% Total : 29.88%	1-1 @ 8.8% 2-2 @ 6.91% 0-0 @ 2.8% 3-3 @ 2.41% Other @ 0.54% Total : 21.46%	1-2 @ 8.89% 1-3 @ 5.99% 0-2 @ 5.71% 0-1 @ 5.66% 2-3 @ 4.66% 0-3 @ 3.85% 1-4 @ 3.03% 2-4 @ 2.35% 0-4 @ 1.95% 1-5 @ 1.22% 3-4 @ 1.22% 2-5 @ 0.95% Other @ 3.2% Total : 48.66%

How you voted: Benfica vs Bayern

Benfica

10.5%

Draw

6.1%

Bayern Munich

83.4%