Cerro Porteno and America de Cali do battle for the second spot in Group H of the Copa Libertadores on Wednesday, in the final round of fixtures of the group stage.
The hosts currently sit three points clear of their opponents, meaning the visitors must secure a victory if they are to progress to the round of 16 of South America's elite competition.
Match preview
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Cerro Porteno suffered a narrow defeat in their last Copa Libertadores outing, as they took on group leaders Atletico Mineiro, who had won three and drawn one of their first four group matches going into that game.
Francisco Arce's side looked set to pick up an impressive point with the game heading to a goalless draw, but Keno popped up with the winning goal in the 92nd minute to snatch all three points for the visitors.
However, after a strong start to their Copa Libertadores campaign, the Paraguayan side do remain in second spot, with a three-point lead over Wednesday's opponents in third spot.
That means that a victory or draw will see Cerro Porteno fend off America de Cali and book their spot in the final 16.
Meanwhile, the away side come into Wednesday's game with the simple task of securing a victory to leapfrog their opponents.
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America de Cali kept their hopes of qualification alive last time out, as they picked up their first victory of the group stage when they hosted Deportivo la Guaira.
Adrian Ramos opened the scoring from the penalty spot for the hosts in the 21st minute, but Charlis Ortiz quickly equalised for the visitors before Santiago Moreno restored their lead and Ramos added his second to double the lead and seal all three points as a result.
That took their tally to four points for the group stage, having lost three of their opening four matches while drawing the other.
One of those defeats was a 2-0 away loss to Wednesday's opponents in the first round of fixtures, as Robert Morales opened the scoring before Angel Cardozo doubled the lead in the dying minutes.
However, America de Cali's victory last time out has given them the chance to sneak into second spot on the final day, with a victory on Wednesday seeing the Colombian side into the final 16.
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Team News
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The Cerro Porteno attack will be led by Mauro Boselli, who has netted seven goals in 14 domestic games this season.
He will be joined by Robert Morales, who has netted eight goals in 17 appearances in all competitions this campaign, including a goal in the Copa Libertadores in the victory in the reverse fixture of Wednesday's clash.
At the other end of the pitch, Arce is expected to stick with the familiar back four of Alberto Espinola, Juan Patino, Alexis Pereira and Santiago Arzamendia, shielding Jean between the sticks.
The America de Cali line will be led by experienced forward Adrian Ramos, who has netted five goals as well as an assist in 11 games in all competitions this season, including a brace in the recent 3-1 win over Deportivo La Guaira.
Santiago Moreno also offers plenty of attacking threat from the wide areas, having recorded six goals and four assists in 22 league and Copa Libertadores appearances this campaign.
Experienced midfielder Yesus Cabrera will be a key man in the middle for the visitors, leading the midfield alongside Luis Paz and Rafael Carrascal.
Cerro Porteno possible starting lineup:
Jean; Espinola, Patino, Pereira, Arzamendia; Goncalves, Villasanti, Cardozo, Aquino; Morales, Boselli
America de Cali possible starting lineup:
Graterol; Navarro, Piracun, Cabezas, Quino; Carrascal, Paz, Cabrera; Moreno, Ramos, Vergara
We say: Cerro Porteno 1-1 America de Cali
The hosts come into this game knowing they simply need to avoid defeat to progress to the final 16, and we see them taking a share of the spoils on home turf.
While America de Cali possess an exciting forward line, we expect Cerro Porteno to step up in such an important game, as they aim to get over the line and book their place in the knockout stage.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Porteno win with a probability of 42.49%. A win for America de Cali had a probability of 30.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Porteno win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest America de Cali win was 0-1 (9.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cerro Porteno in this match.
