Cape Verde and Central African Republic resume their hunt for a first-ever World Cup appearance when they square off at the Stadium Aderito Sena on Saturday.
The hosts will be seeking to make it three wins from three and move top of Group C, while the visitors look to pick up all three points and keep their hopes of securing a first-ever World Cup appearance alive.
Match preview
Cape Verde kept their hopes of progressing into the final qualifying round alive last time out when they claimed a hard-fought 1-0 win over Liberia on home turf.
It was late drama at the Stadium Aderito Sena when Al-Nasr Dubai midfielder Ryan Mendes came up clutch for Bubista's side as he netted a 90th-minute winner to dash the bosses of the Lone Stars.
That was a second successive group victory over the Lone Stars in the space of three days, after Jamiro Monteiro and Garry Rodrigues scored to cancel out Van Dave Harmon's 45th-minute opener and turn the game around in the reverse fixture.
After picking up one win from their opening two outings, this upsurge in form has seen Cape Verde rise to second place in Group C, two points off first-placed Nigeria.
Meanwhile, Central African Republic suffered a huge blow to their qualification chances as they fell to a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Nigeria in the second of their October double-header.
In a one-sided affair at the Stade Omnisports, Rangers defender Leon Balogun and Napoli forward Victor Osimhen netted first-half goals to hand the Super Eagles all three points.
Prior to that, Raoul Savoy's men picked up their first win of the campaign in the reverse fixture as Les Herbiers' forward Karl Namnganda scored in the 91st minute to stun their West African counterparts.
With four points from their opening four games, Central African Republic are currently third on the log, five points behind group leaders Nigeria, and must avoid dropping any points to at least stand a chance of making it to the final qualifying round.
However, they head into Saturday's game on a run of one win from their most recent 10 games in all competitions, picking up two draws and losing seven since a 2-0 victory over Burundi in the Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers back in 2019.
This poor run has been down to a lack of sting in attack and their defensive frailties, as they have scored just five goals in that time, while shipping 21 goals at the opposite end of the pitch.
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Team News
Cape Verde have called up a solid squad for their closing two games against Central African Republic and Nigeria, including AEL Limassol goalkeeper Vozinha.
The 35-year-old is currently second in the nation's all-time appearance chart, six behind former Arouca midfielder Babanco, and will be looking to close down that gap.
Mendes heads into the game with five goal involvements in his most recent six games for club and country and the Al-Nasr Dubai man will be one to keep an eye on in this one.
Meanwhile, Tresor Toropite netted the equaliser when the sides squared off back in September's reverse fixture and the 27-year-old could come up trumps for the visitors once again.
However, Central African Republic will have to cope without the services of Georgino M'Vondo Ze after the Angouleme Charente forward sustained a severe injury midway through the first half against Nigeria last time out.
Cape Verde possible starting lineup:
Vozinha; Stopira; Lopes, Fortes; Borges, Monteiro, Nenass, Paulo; Vagner, Tavares, Mendes
Central African Republic possible starting lineup:
Samola; Ban, Guinari, Ndobe, Niamathe, Ngam-Ngam; Yangao, Gaopandia, Toropite, Urie; Ngoma
We say: Cape Verde 2-0 Central African Republic
With just one place and three points separating the sides in Group C, this game has the makings of an absorbing contest. While Central African Republic have struggled for results away from home, Cape Verde head into the game unbeaten in all but one of their last seven home games and we anticipate they will continue their fine home form and pick up their third win of the campaign.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cape Verde win with a probability of 44.1%. A win for Central African Republic had a probability of 31.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cape Verde win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Central African Republic win was 1-2 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Cape Verde in this match.
