Two sides who may have expected to be in the middle of a relegation battle at this point in the campaign, Cambridge United will welcome Crewe Alexandra to the Abbey Stadium looking to pull further clear of the drop zone.
Sitting comfortably in mid-table, the hosts can pull even closer to the top half of the table with a victory over relegation-threatened Crewe.
Match preview
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After stunning Premier League Newcastle United in the FA Cup Third Round, Cambridge went on to win their next three matches across all competitions, including a vital three points against Doncaster Rovers last time out.
Triumphing 3-1 over the bottom-placed club, the U's moved up to 13th with the win, and Mark Bonner's side will be confident of securing back-to-back seasons in League One.
Competing in the third tier for the first time since 2001-02, Cambridge have been steady so far this season, picking up 33 points from their 26 matches so far.
As well as transforming the Abbey into a difficult place to take points from, Cambridge have also impressed on the road this term, averaging over 1.0 points during away matches.
Such form has dragged the U's nine points clear of the relegation zone, with Bonner's men targeting another three points against Crewe this weekend.
For Crewe, a return to the fourth tier seemed an inevitability in the early parts of the campaign after David Artell's side appeared to be marooned at the foot of the table.
Bottom as recently as December 29th, a run of seven points from a possible 12 has seen Crewe jump up to 22nd, with survival now looking like a real prospect.
Promoted via the controversial points per game method in 2019-20, Alexandra went on to finish 12th last term, before sliding into trouble earlier this season.
If Crewe avoid relegation, it will extend their longest stay in League One since 2015-16 when Alexandra dropped out of the third tier after four consecutive seasons in the division.
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Team News
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After a clean sheet against Shrewsbury Town in their previous fixture, Crewe will likely turn to goalkeeper Dave Richards once more.
Operating with a back five for much of the campaign, Billy Sass-Davies will anchor the centre-backs, with Luke Offord and Travis Johnson either side.
Oliver Finney will operate at the heart of the engine room for Alexandra, while strikers Chris Porter and Chris Long will look to fire Crewe towards three points.
Man of the Match from the Newcastle win, goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov will look to continue his strong form having conceded just twice in his previous five U's games.
Harrison Dunk was on target for the hosts against Doncaster in midweek, and the left-back will retain his place on the flanks, with Jubril Okedina operating on the opposite side.
Also on target was top scorer Sam Smith, who has now netted six times for Cambridge this season.
Cambridge United possible starting lineup:
Mitov; Okedina, Sherring, Iredale, Dunk; May, Digby; Knibbs, Lankester, Brophy; Ironside
Crewe Alexandra possible starting lineup:
Richards; Johnson, Sass-Davies, Offord; Mandron, Lowery, Finney, Murphy, Ainley; Long, Porter
We say: Cambridge United 1-0 Crewe Alexandra
While Crewe may be on the up, there are few sides in the division enjoying their football more than Cambridge at this moment.
With safety seemingly around the corner for the U's, expect them to continue their strong form this weekend.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cambridge United win with a probability of 52.73%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 22.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cambridge United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cambridge United in this match.
