Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 42.31%. A win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 33.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.33%) and 0-2 (6.54%). The likeliest Wolfsburg win was 2-1 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.