Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 38.04%. A win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 37.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.73%) and 0-2 (5.73%). The likeliest Wolfsburg win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Koln would win this match.