Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 44.83%. A win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 29.13% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Wolfsburg win was 0-1 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Union Berlin in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Union Berlin.