Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 53.36%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 24.04% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.83%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 2-1 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Union Berlin in this match.