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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 53.36%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 24.04% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.83%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 2-1 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Union Berlin in this match.
| Result | ||
| Union Berlin | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 24.04% | 22.59% | 53.36% |
| Both teams to score 58.68% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.83% | 41.16% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.44% | 63.56% |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.39% | 30.6% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.15% | 66.84% |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.55% | 15.44% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.71% | 44.29% |
| Score Analysis |
| Union Berlin | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 2-1 @ 6.19% 1-0 @ 5.6% 2-0 @ 3.31% 3-1 @ 2.44% 3-2 @ 2.28% 3-0 @ 1.31% Other @ 2.91% Total : 24.04% | 1-1 @ 10.45% 2-2 @ 5.78% 0-0 @ 4.73% 3-3 @ 1.42% Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.59% | 1-2 @ 9.76% 0-1 @ 8.83% 0-2 @ 8.25% 1-3 @ 6.08% 0-3 @ 5.14% 2-3 @ 3.6% 1-4 @ 2.84% 0-4 @ 2.4% 2-4 @ 1.68% 1-5 @ 1.06% Other @ 3.73% Total : 53.36% |