Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 31

Apr 23, 2022 at 5.30pm UK

Allianz Arena

Bayern
3 - 1
Dortmund

Gnabry (15'), Lewandowski (34'), Musiala (83')
Nagelsmann (87')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Can (52' pen.)
Can (40'), Rose (41')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayern Munich

Last Six:

Last Game: Wolfsburg 2-2 Bayern
Saturday, May 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Next Game: Viktoria Koln vs. Bayern
Friday, July 29 at 1am in DFB-Pokal

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich	34	60	77
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	33	69
3	Bayer Leverkusen	34	33	64

Borussia Dortmund

Last Six:

Last Game: Dortmund 2-1 Hertha Berlin
Saturday, May 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Next Game: 1860 Munich vs. Dortmund
Friday, July 29 at 1am in DFB-Pokal

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich	34	60	77
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	33	69
3	Bayer Leverkusen	34	33	64

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 66.08%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 15.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.33%) and 1-0 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.34%), while for a Borussia Dortmund win it was 1-2 (4.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern Munich	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
66.08%	18.43%	15.48%

Both teams to score 58.39%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.42%

34.57%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.48%

56.51%

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.24%

9.75%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.54%

32.45%

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.7%

35.29%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.95%

72.05%

Score Analysis

Bayern Munich 66.08%

Borussia Dortmund 15.48%

Draw 18.43%

Bayern Munich	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 9.71% 2-0 @ 9.33% 1-0 @ 8.01% 3-1 @ 7.54% 3-0 @ 7.24% 4-1 @ 4.39% 4-0 @ 4.21% 3-2 @ 3.92% 4-2 @ 2.28% 5-1 @ 2.04% 5-0 @ 1.96% 5-2 @ 1.06% Other @ 4.39% Total : 66.08%	1-1 @ 8.34% 2-2 @ 5.06% 0-0 @ 3.44% 3-3 @ 1.36% Other @ 0.23% Total : 18.43%	1-2 @ 4.35% 0-1 @ 3.58% 0-2 @ 1.87% 2-3 @ 1.76% 1-3 @ 1.51% Other @ 2.42% Total : 15.48%